Here are the key takeaways from “Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it)” with Brian Balfour:
- New Distribution Cycle: Brian outlines a pattern that all major platforms (Facebook, Google, Apple) follow—a four-step cycle:
- Market conditions are ripe but no clear winner.
- The leader emerges by building a moat (e.g., context/memory for AI).
- Platform opens to third parties for rapid expansion and ecosystem development.
- Eventually, the platform closes to control/monetization.
- ChatGPT at a Critical Juncture:
- We’re at step two: ChatGPT (and potentially Gemini/Claude) is about to open their platform to third parties, marking a rare, short-lived window for exponential growth—similar to the Facebook platform gold rush.
- This wave is expected within the next six months: companies have a limited time to move.
- Why Move Fast:
- If you don’t integrate with this new channel, your competitors will—and customer expectations will rapidly shift.
- Startups must be focused: pick a single platform to bet on and go all-in. Larger companies can hedge bets, but if late, they risk missing the “escape velocity.”
- Signals & Rationale:
- Retention and engagement are better predictors of long-term success than just user numbers. ChatGPT’s engagement outpaces competitors, indicating it’s likely to win this round.
- Major signals suggest OpenAI will soon launch a third-party platform (job posts, new agent modes, preferred partnerships)—but even if you’re unsure who will win, picking your bet and acting fast is crucial.
- Historical Precedents:
- Facebook, Google, iOS, and smaller ecosystems (e.g., Udemy) all followed the open-to-exploit, then close-to-monetize pattern. The cycle is getting shorter, so seizing the opportunity matters more than ever.
- Advice for Founders & Product Teams:
- Play the game—don’t abstain or try to wait it out.
- Make a focused, strategic bet on which platform (likely ChatGPT) to integrate with.
- As you do, start planning for how to retain control/defensibility for the inevitable “closing” phase—own relationships, build unique data/context, or create network effects outside the core platform.
- Be ready to pivot quickly as the environment evolves.
- AI Adoption Inside Companies:
- The best companies set hard constraints (e.g., no new headcount unless productivity gains can’t be had with AI) and support “catalysts” (early adopters) while helping converts and decisively managing “anchors” (those who resist change).
- Real AI adoption is often slower and patchier than C-suite decrees suggest; executives must engage directly with the ground floor.
In sum:
ChatGPT is about to become a major new growth channel. Get in early, integrate deeply, and play to win—the window is short, and the returns skew towards the bold and strategic.